{"product_id":"why-intelligence-fails-lessons-from-the-iranian-revolution-and-the-iraq-war-cornell-studies-in-security-affairs","title":"Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons from the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War (Cornell Studies in Security Affairs)","description":"\u003cp\u003eThe U.S. government spends enormous resources each year on the gathering and analysis of intelligence  yet the history of American foreign policy is littered with missteps and misunderstandings that have resulted from intelligence failures. In Why Intelligence Fails  Robert Jervis examines the politics and psychology of two of the more spectacular intelligence failures in recent memory: the mistaken belief that the regime of the Shah in Iran was secure and stable in 1978  and the claim that Iraq had active WMD programs in 2002. The Iran case is based on a recently declassified report Jervis was commissioned to undertake by CIA thirty years ago and includes memoranda written by CIA officials in response to Jerviss findings. The Iraq case  also grounded in a review of the intelligence communitys performance  is based on close readings of both classified and declassified documents  though Jerviss conclusions are entirely supported by evidence that has been declassified. In both cases  Jervis finds not only that intelligence was badly flawed but also that later explanationsanalysts were bowing to political pressure and telling the White House what it wanted to hear or were willfully blindwere also incorrect. Proponents of these explanations claimed that initial errors were compounded by groupthink  lack of coordination within the government  and failure to share information. Policy prescriptions  including the recent establishment of a Director of National Intelligence  were supposed to remedy the situation. In Jerviss estimation  neither the explanations nor the prescriptions are adequate. The inferences that intelligence drew were actually quite plausible given the information available. Errors arose  he concludes  from insufficient attention to the ways in which information should be gathered and interpreted  a lack of self-awareness about the factors that led to the judgments  and an organizational culture that failed to probe for weaknesses and explore alternatives. Evaluating the inherent tensions between the methods and aims of intelligence personnel and policymakers from a unique insiders perspective  Jervis forcefully criticizes recent proposals for improving the performance of the intelligence community and discusses ways in which future analysis can be improved.\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"My Store","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":44946602491957,"sku":"ByrdShop_0801447852","price":29.15,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0627\/8139\/0901\/files\/9780801447853.jpg?v=1769956762","url":"https:\/\/atxbooks.com\/products\/why-intelligence-fails-lessons-from-the-iranian-revolution-and-the-iraq-war-cornell-studies-in-security-affairs","provider":"ATX Books","version":"1.0","type":"link"}