Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition

About this book

Leaders in all fields-business medicine law government-make crucial decisions every day. The harsh truth is that they mismanage many of those choices even though they have the right intentions. These blunders take a huge toll on leaders their organizations and the people they serve. Why is it so hard to make sound decisions? We fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable. In Think Twice Michael Mauboussin shows you how to recognize-and avoid-common mental missteps including: -Misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages -Aggregating micro-level behavior to predict macro-level behavior -Not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision -Relying too much on experts Sharing vivid stories from business and beyond Mauboussin offers powerful rules for avoiding each error. And he explains how to know when its time to think twice-to question your reasoning and adopt decision-making strategies that are far more effective even if they seem counterintuitive. Master the art of thinking twice and youll start spotting dangerous mental errors-in your own decisions and in those of others. Equipped with this awareness youll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.